Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.160398 1.225360 1.292754 1.368038 1.449966 1.536620 1.635459
2026-01-11 1.070065 1.163230 1.264153 1.382192 1.517223 1.667784 1.849648
2026-01-18 1.005583 1.114734 1.236515 1.383605 1.558014 1.760218 2.015381
2026-01-25 0.970324 1.093255 1.233843 1.408375 1.621885 1.878176 2.214785
2026-02-01 0.914284 1.042476 1.191787 1.381008 1.618077 1.910446 2.306856
2026-02-08 0.860609 0.990760 1.144616 1.342925 1.596355 1.916117 2.361688
2026-02-15 0.825921 0.959717 1.120181 1.330473 1.604570 1.958458 2.465605
2026-02-22 0.801300 0.939442 1.107435 1.331182 1.628527 2.021338 2.600508
2026-03-01 0.769608 0.908747 1.079852 1.310750 1.622518 2.042301 2.676269
2026-03-08 0.733802 0.871368 1.042042 1.274786 1.593097 2.028387 2.698915
2026-03-15 0.712826 0.851961 1.026352 1.267075 1.601273 2.066742 2.800958
2026-03-22 0.703429 0.846908 1.028838 1.283484 1.643186 2.155017 2.985393
2026-03-29 0.683210 0.827774 1.012927 1.275248 1.651485 2.197161 3.105290
2026-04-05 0.672173 0.820300 1.012211 1.287948 1.690536 2.287753 3.312573
2026-04-12 0.657720 0.807660 1.003858 1.289222 1.712439 2.352996 3.483108
2026-04-19 0.651783 0.806075 1.010285 1.311533 1.766564 2.471853 3.758514
2026-04-26 0.629943 0.782237 0.985125 1.286881 1.747569 2.471702 3.819465
2026-05-03 0.606011 0.754876 0.954200 1.252538 1.711809 2.441698 3.821920
2026-05-10 0.591054 0.739386 0.939368 1.241299 1.711454 2.470139 3.937173
2026-05-17 0.580775 0.730010 0.932778 1.241939 1.729688 2.530733 4.120586
2026-05-24 0.564939 0.712480 0.914037 1.223487 1.716228 2.535704 4.193107
2026-05-31 0.545409 0.689340 0.886661 1.190973 1.678479 2.495984 4.170260
2026-06-07 0.534624 0.678205 0.876231 1.183997 1.682198 2.529688 4.303841